Blake Snell is still unsigned. He is a two-time Cy Young winner (2018 with Tampa and last year with San Diego) and unquestionably a really good pitcher. But did you know he has only pitched in the 8th inning five times in his entire career? In that frame he has thrown a grand total of one and two-thirds of an inning. That’s only one and two-thirds more than me and we all know how many total innings I’ve thrown in the majors. Obviously, we’ve thrown an equal number of pitches in the 9th inning…
And this is a guy who wants a $200 million contract? For six years? At age 31? Look, at some point, durability comes into play here. How can a guy who’s hardly ever pitched in the 8th inning get that kind of contract? I don’t care that he’s won two Cy Youngs. Those are his top two seasons by far, which is kind of to be expected, but the knock on him is that he doesn’t come close to those numbers in his other seasons. (His next-lowest season ERA is more than a full point higher, he’s never broken double-digit wins otherwise, etc.) They are also the only seasons in which he’s reached 180 innings pitched, and just barely both times. Last year he hit the number exactly, and with Tampa in 2018 he threw 180.2 innings…
The counter to all this, however, is that you’re a better team when he’s on the roster. Not a lot of guys throw more than 7 innings nowadays anyway. On 2023’s leaderboard, he was tied for 10th across MLB in starts, which means he was healthy. (Only nine pitchers had more than one complete game.) He tied for third in strikeouts. Fewest hits-per-9-innings. Least walks. Tops in two other metrics I don’t understand (“Adjusted Pitching Runs” and “Base-Out Wins Saved”).
The obvious historical comparison here to make him look weak here is Nolan Ryan, who had 222 complete games and 61 complete game shutouts in 27 years. He topped 180 innings in 17 seasons. He topped 250 innings six times. He threw 332.2 innings in 1974, 326 in 1973, and missed the 300-inning mark by exactly an inning in 1977. In a nine-year stretch in his prime the fewest innings he threw in a season was 198 (the year after he hit 332.2) and aside from that broke at least 220…
And what did Nolan Ryan do in his final start of 1974, when he was already at 320+ innings? He threw a complete game no-hitter (the third of his 7 career). That’s just crazy…
The thing is, comparing anyone’s durability to Nolan Ryan will make them look weak. Sure, it’s a different game today. Relievers were used incredibly differently when the Ryan Express was still on the tracks. And let’s not forget that Ryan still didn’t finish every game he started. He wanted to, because that’s what a starting pitcher is “supposed to do…”
But the biggest difference, I think, between Ryan’s day and today’s is that pitchers are asked to throw as hard as they can for as long as they can, and not worry about total innings or complete games. Ryan was conforming to the actual description of the job- “pitching.” That means not throwing 100 mph all the time, because that’s how you are unable to pitch past the 6th inning effectively. It means saving it for when you really needed to use it. It meant the key- as Greg Maddux knew all too well- was good speed, but better location…
Few pitchers seem to want to do that nowadays. In Ryan’s day a guy who focused on the radar gun was putting personal glory over team victory and teammates didn’t like it. Now, it doesn’t seem to matter. The radar gun is the goal, not finishing the game because you’re the guy who started it and it is your “responsibility.” Some guys seem to have Ryan’s mentality, though. The Giants Logan Webb led the majors with 216 innings last season, and was mad the year before when he “only” hit 192.1, both already well above Snell’s personal best and Webb’s really just been an established starter the last three years…
I was going to use the Yankees Gerrit Cole as another example of a continuously durable guy who wants the ball every time, and that he’s thrown over 200 innings in 6 seasons of his 11-year career, but guess what… the 33-year-old is getting an MRI on his pitching elbow today, and that scares every Yankee fan. As my man Bill Parcells says, “The best ability is availability,” and Snell has always been available…
In fact, the Cole injury may spur the Yankees to up their supposed interest in Snell enough that they actually sign him…
So why is Snell still unsigned? It seems to be that his own perceived value and potential teams perceived value are two different things. Even if he never pitches into the 8th inning in whatever contract he gets, he will give you five or six nearly every time he takes the slab. In this day and age, that is being able to count on somebody…
On the other hand, Nolan Ryan is closing in on 80 years old. But I bet he could still throw 80…
Never sign a pitcher to a long term or large contract after a career year.
Snell's 4 seasons between his Cy Young Award seasons are mediocre. WHiPs > 1.2, ERAs > 3 or 4, 25 wins total. His two seasons before Cy Young 1 were mediocre. And, he never threw more than 129 IP in any of the 6.
For $200M, am I getting Cy Young Blake or Journeyman Blake? History suggests the latter, 6 to 2. That's why he is not signed yet.
Yes, Ryan is an outlier--many of his records will never be approached--but the comparison merits validity to identify fair value. Better to have 1 $200M pitcher who might give you 180 quality innings? Or, 120 mediocre IP? Or, 3 pitchers at market rates who might provide you 60 to 70 quality IP at a fraction of the cost?
No offense, but there's no sense in comparing any modern day pitcher to a Nolan Ryan, or a Warren Spahn, or Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal, Sandy Koufax, etc. Blake Snell is not programmed to do what any of them did. The bottom line for me is that the Giants really do need to strengthen their rotation. Even when Ray and Cobb come back they can use one or two more solid starters. I'd like to see them sign Snell and Montgomery. Its only money and they have wads of it.