Scott Rolen made the Hall of Fame But Dale Murphy's Still Not Good Enough?
It's the Hall of FAME, not the Hall of VERY GOOD
I’ve been trying to find the words to explain why Scott Rolen isn’t a Hall of Famer for weeks now. I just can’t find them. I just can’t. He got voted in and I basically went into baseball-historian shock.
And I keep coming back to “it’s not supposed to be the Hall of ‘Very Good.’”
Scott Rolen had a very good career. That’s not Hall of Fame worthy.
He played 17 years and literally led the league in one stat, one year. (Defensive WAR in 2004.) Leading one category, once, is now Hall of Fame worthy?
Roger Maris would like a word. In fact, Roger Maris would like more than a couple words. He would like to know how a back-to-back MVP isn’t in the Hall of Fame and a guy who finished fourth in MVP voting once made the Hall of Fame.
When someone’s a Hall of Famer you know it when they’re playing.
Be honest, did you ever hear this phrase during his playing career:
“Future Hall-of-Famer Scott Rolen.”
Did you? Did anyone say that? Did anyone even THINK that?
Maybe, maybe, during one of his good stretches. And look, I want to be clear I am not here to disparage Scott Rolen or his career. The video of his parents crying when they found out he made the hall is absolutely wonderful. It was a dream they never dared to have when he was a kid growing up in Evansville, Indiana. Good for them. Their son had a very good 17-year MLB career.
There it is again. He had a very good MLB career. He didn’t have a Hall of Fame career. And by including Rolen, you now have to include guys where the argument against their inclusion is that they were “very good.”
The obvious player, you may have been able to tell from the title, is Dale Murphy. Murph was the best player on those horrible Braves teams for years, back when they were on the national WTBS feed every week. He played 18 years- one more than Rolen- and, just like Maris, won back-to-back MVP’s.
You look at Murphy’s baseball-reference page and it’s got plenty of black ink- that is, league-leading categories. Games played, homers, RBI, slugging percentage, hell even strikeouts and grounded-into-double-plays. Now look at Rolen’s. Not one mark of black ink in any yearly category, not once.
Rolen isn’t worthy of the Hall of Fame, and they knew it the first year Rolen appeared on the ballot in 2018… and he got 10.2% of the vote.
And obviously, nothing changed statistically for him between then and now.
So what happened between then and now?
If he was so bad a Hall of Fame nominee in 2018 that he got fewer votes than Jeff Kent and Billy Wagner and Gary Sheffield (not to mention Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens), then how the heck did he get to the 75% threshold now?
Clearly the voters turned over. And their reasoning for voting clearly changed. Omar Vizquel got 37% in 2018, also his first year on the ballot. He got 19.5% this year. (Yes, even Vizquel has black-ink league-leading categories- in batting, with “sacrifice bunts.” Hey, it’s something.)
Jeff Kent got knocked off the ballot this year, his 10th year of eligibility, after getting 46.5%.
Jeff Kent actually won NL MVP in 2000. Let me repeat: he played in the same league, on the same team, as Barry Bonds, and beat him out for MVP one year. Bonds finished second to Kent that year (and should have won it). We can argue about what a silly award MVP sometimes is- especially when Jeff Kent beats out Barry Bonds- but when we’re talking about Hall of Fame stats it counts, and Jeff Kent won it and Scott Rolen didn’t.
And Dale Murphy won it twice. And Don Mattingly, who we have not mentioned yet, won it once. And Roger Maris won it twice. And Barry Bonds won it seven times and also won as many Gold Gloves as Scott Rolen. Omar Vizquel won eleven Gold Gloves.
Since I brought up Bonds, have you seen a picture of Scott Rolen in 2004? Look at this in the 2004 playoffs. That’s normal? And this guy is considered clean and Barry Bonds isn’t? Get outta town.
Even in that era, even with Bonds dominating the batting charts on all sides, Rolen is nowhere to be found. Like no Top 10 yearly finishes in offensive WAR, like ever. Jeff Kent did it twice. Dale Murphy made it six years in a row.
When we switch to defensive stats, which is what lots of people are saying why Rolen got into the Hall, he made the Top 10 in defensive WAR once in his career, when he finished on top in 2004. That’s it. You know who’s 9th all-time in defensive WAR? Omar freaking Vizquel. Scott Rolen is 45th. Omar Vizquel made the Top 10 in defensive WAR when he was 24 and playing for the Mariners in 1991, and he made the Top 10 when he was 40 and playing for the Giants in 2007 (and other times in between). And Scott Rolen made it once.
Hey, don’t get me wrong. Scott Rolen had a very good career. Omar Vizquel had a better one. And so did Dale Murphy. Award-wise, Jeff Kent had a better one, too.
And there’s no way Jeff Kent should be in the Hall of Fame. They got that right. But if Rolen’s in the Hall, Murph and Vizquel’s arguments just got a whole lot better.
It’s not supposed to be the Hall of Very Good. But that’s what it is now with Scott Rolen in it. It shouldn’t be shocking any more, but it is.
How does a player trend up? If Scott Rolen was only qualified enough to earn 10% of the votes in year 1, how does he suddenly earn 75% in year 6? If he was good enough in his first year of eligibility, he should be elected. One of the truly incredible mysteries of our time.