I always like doing MLB season previews, because they’re fun and I expect to be wrong. It’s kind of like doing brackets for the NCAA tournament. The fun is making the predictions and seeing what actually happens, so let’s get to prognosticating…
NL West team prediction: The Giants make the playoffs
I think a good manager is worth five wins. This may not seem like a lot in a 162-game season, but if the Giants had five more wins in 2023, they finish the same exact record as the eventual pennant-winning Arizona Diamondbacks. Bob Melvin is worth five wins and a playoff berth, at the minimum. They actually spent money on free agents that will make a big difference- Matt Chapman, Blake Snell, Jorge Soler, and Jung Hoo-Lee, the one Asian baseball import who is going completely under the radar. Logan Webb will throw 200+ innings and actually get run support. They’re a playoff team, plain and simple…
NL West overall: The Dodgers had a bad starting rotation last year and still won 100 games. We can use permanent marker to give them 100 wins and another division title. I insist that Arizona wants to do nothing more than finish .500 every year. Some years they’re better, like last year when they went 84-78, and some years they’re worse, like in 2022 when they went 74-88. They have four pretty good starters because they just signed Jordan Montgomery to go along with Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly and the up-and-coming Brandon Pfaadt. So I’ll put them ahead of the Giants, but those two should be pretty close and both will make the October tournament. The Padres are going to take a major step back. If Bob Melvin- who is loved throughout the game except apparently for San Diego- couldn’t keep that team together, new manager Mike Schildt hasn’t got a chance. And the Rockies are cellar dwellers, ironic for a team that plays a mile high. I remember when Kris Bryant signed his 7-year deal with Colorado somebody asked, “Will the Rockies finish at least third or higher once during his contract?” We’re going into year three and the answer is still unequivocally no…
Predicted order of finish: 1. Dodgers 2. Diamondbacks 3. Giants 4. Padres 5. Rockies
AL West team prediction: The A’s are better than the Angels
What would you consider a good improvement for a team’s win total? If they win 15 games more than they did the last season, would that count? Well, I feel reasonably confident the A’s are going to win at least 15 more games than they did in 2023. Unfortunately, since they lost 112 last year, that still means they’ll lose 97. The most amazing stat is they blew leads in 42 games last year they eventually lost. 42! That’s a snakebitten team for sure. It sure looks like they’re going to pretty much have the same roster as last year, and that means all those kids will be one year better. They even added three decent ex-Giants in 3rd baseman J.D. Davis, and starting pitchers Alex Wood and Ross Stripling. Since the Angels lost their best pitcher and hitter (it was the same guy) and still don’t have any decent starting pitching, there’s a non-zero chance that the A’s get some luck on their side and the Angels collapse in the dust. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Dodgers win total and the Angels loss total are the same number, just reversed, and I just told you the Dodgers were winning 100 games easily…
AL West overall: I see people predicting the Astros will win the division, or the Mariners. I don’t see anybody picking the defending World Series Champs and Bruce Bochy. I told you last year to not count out Boch for anything and I’m still saying it. I don’t care who’s in his rotation, he knows how to massage a pitching staff properly, especially with a decent bullpen. Hard to count out the Astros though, but the Mariners pick doesn’t click for me. They are missing a few key pieces, like a quality third baseman, which is why they were linked with Matt Chapman during free agency. But Mariners management doesn’t seem willing to spend that extra money with the Astros and Rangers notably better than they are…
Predicted order of finish: 1. Rangers 2. Astros 3. Mariners 4. A’s 5. Angels
NL Central: It’s the Cubs’ chance
Look, both Central divisions suck. I’m giving the Cubs this division by default, for what I said about a good manager giving you five wins also goes here with the Cubs stealing Craig Counsell under dead of night from the Brewers. I also think the best Japanese free agent who doesn’t have a gambling addicted interpreter (allegedly), at least I hope not, Shota Imanaga, is going to be a great starting pitcher. I’m not convinced how much Kyle Hendricks has left in the tank as a starter, nor Drew Smyly, but the lineup is good (glad they held out and didn’t give Cody Bellinger everything he wanted, a motivated Belli is a better Belli) and I’m convinced that Alexander Canario, who Giants GM Farhan Zaidi gave up in the Kris Bryant trade in 2021, is going to be a star…
NL Central overall: It sure seems the Cardinals are going to use an actual 26-man roster spot on a 37-year old part-time infielder who can’t even DH. I think the world of Brandon Crawford, but St. Louis giving him an Opening Day roster spot says more about the Cards than B-Craw. And that is: yikes. The Brewers have been teetering for years, and without Counsell Bernie the Brewer isn’t the only thing that’s going to be sliding, you get me? The Reds are cheap but their young lineup is starting to cook, and their starting pitching might be ready to take that leap because Hunter Greene and Graham Ashcraft are the real deal. Andrew Abbott started well but tailed off late, reasonably predictable for a rookie throwing a lot of innings in the sweltering Ohio late-summer heat. The Pirates might be fun, especially with last year’s number one draft pick Paul Skenes eventually in the rotation (though not until May so they can finesse his service time and keep him under club control for an extra year as is customary but skeezy). They will hit a ton of homers into the Allegheny River…
Predicted order of finish: 1. Cubs 2. Reds 3. Brewers 4. Pirates 5. Cardinals
AL Central: Awful. Just awful
Everything I said about the NL Central being awful, multiply it for the AL Central. I wouldn’t be surprised if the entire division finished under .500. I want to believe the Royals are on the way up and Bobby Witt Jr. is the centerpiece and the catalyst but, man. This team has only seven players returning from last year’s Opening Day roster. Yes, completely revamping a team that lost 106 games is good, but how much of this is window dressing? I’d be OK if a roster had Adam Frazier or Hunter Renfroe on it, as they’re two sides of the same coin, but both? And Garrett Hampson seems like a younger version of either. It’s kind of like the A’s: if they win 15 more games than last year it’s a marked improvement, but that still leaves them with 91 losses. No matter what, they’re still better than the White Sox…
AL Central overall: The Twins win the division by default, but their starting pitching took a hit and they could stumble. I want to believe in Stephen Vogt in his first season as Guardians manager, but they can’t hit worth a lick. The Tigers still feel like they should be better than they were last year, but I thought last year they’d be better than they were the year before that and they weren’t, so I don’t know. I still think A. J. Hinch is a good manager for that team. If they can get over .500, they have a chance. And the White Sox might be the worst team in the majors. They so bungled their window by hiring Tony LaRussa the second time it set the franchise back 15 years…
Predicted order of finish: 1. Twins 2. Tigers 3. Royals 4. Guardians 7. (yes, in a 5-team division) White Sox
NL East: The Braves are better than the Dodgers? Probably
The hype train is on the Dodgers, because they’re the glamor franchise. But the Braves won 104 games last year and somehow got better. They’re not asking the oft-injured Chris Sale to be their number one guy but their fourth or fifth starter. That eases the strain on him. They improved their bullpen, looking ahead to October already, and also added former Mariners top prospect Jarred Kelenic, who showed flashes in Seattle, who will only be asked to bat 9th and play a decent left field. If that’s your worst hitter, you’re doing more than all right. This daily lineup 1-5 is Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, a 50-homer season from Matt Olson, and Marcell Ozuna. I’ll put that up against LA with Mookie, Shohei, Freddie Freeman, Will Smith and an aging Max Muncy and take my chances any day of the week…
NL East overall: If the Mets didn’t have bad luck last year, they’d have had no luck at all. Everything went wrong and they lost only 87 games. Imagine what happens if everything goes right, including a nearly unrecognizable Sean Manaea, who looks like Sampson after he cut his hair. The Phillies stay in the mix because they mash at the right time. The Marlins look confused, and the Nationals are a mess…
Predicted order of finish: 1. Braves 2. Mets 3. Phillies 4. Marlins 5. Nationals
AL East: Never overlook the Rays
Hey, the Orioles are a great story. But Tampa has seemingly completely turned over the roster and found a way to win 90+ games every year for the last decade or so (99 in 2023). And that’s really not true because they still have Randy Arozarena and Brandon Lowe and a few guys you see and go “oh, yeah, Tampa.” When they stop winning 90+ a year I’ll stop thinking they’re going to be really good. Until then, assume it’s going to happen…
AL East overall: The Orioles were young and won 101 games. 30 of them were the one-run variety, so they got a little lucky there. (The Dodgers only won 16.) They might get better overall and that might counter the luck regression, but I see them winning closer to 90. The Yankees should be good, but should is the operative word. They have spent so much on pitching and it’s not working out, especially with Gerrit Cole already injured. Toronto will miss Matt Chapman’s defense and the big bats will not be able to make up for all of it. I don’t know what the Red Sox are doing, and neither do they. Not a good strategy in a good division…
Predicted order of finish: 1. Rays 2. Orioles 3. Yankees 4. Blue Jays 5. Red Sox
NL Playoff teams: Dodgers, Braves, Cubs, Diamondbacks (Wild Card), Giants (Wild Card), Mets (Wild Card)
AL Playoff teams: Rangers, Rays, Twins, Astros (Wild Card), Orioles (Wild Card), Yankees (Wild Card)
World Series predictions: If you say Dodgers or Braves vs. Rangers or Astros you’re chalk, if you say anybody else you’re being that one guy who makes arguments just to make arguments. I don’t think there’s anything wrong with the playoff format and the top two seeds getting time off. It’s just started off with those teams that earned the byes losing early, so everyone thinks it’s a problem…
Look, in the very first modern-day World Series the upstart American League won (Red Sox over Pirates). The National League won the next (Giants over A’s), but the AL and the one after that (White Sox over Cubs). Did that mean the NL sucked or that the AL was really actually good? Well actually, it meant the NL valued the pennant over the post-season, as had been true in all the proto-World Series post-season series before that. But I digress…
The post-season is fluky, and always has been. If the Dodgers or Braves roll through and win the World Series, no one will complain about the playoff format. Until they do, people will whine. It’s just how it works…
And let’s play ball!
Every team wins 162 games, every team is a World Series contender, every team has a potential OPS champion.
Baseball springs hope eternal.
Excellent, thoughtful analysis. Now, to check with my interpreter...
Yeah, but how do you think the Chicago Whales will do this year? I think the Tristones will once again give them a run in the Debs Division of the What a Ballgame! League.