Rafael Devers to the Giants Trade Analysis
Can't sign 'em, trade for 'em
The San Francisco Giants couldn't convince a power hitter to sign with them (see the runner-up finishes with Aaron Judge, Bryce Harper, Shohei Ohtani, Giancarlo Stanton, et al) so they did what billionaires do when they want something to go their way: they waited for someone to get in so much hot water that they had to sell, and they bought that power hitter for a song.
That’s the simple reason for why the Boston Red Sox traded 3-time All-Star power hitter Rafael Devers to the Giants on Sunday afternoon. Devers signed a 10-year, $313 million contract in 2023 to play third base for the Red Sox. So, what did the Red Sox do this off-season? They signed Alex Bregman, who has played third base his entire career, to a three-year $120 million contract without alerting Devers to the deal and then told Devers that Bregman would be playing third base and Devers would be the designated hitter.
Does that seem like a rational move to you? It does not. So, Devers, naturally, balked at the idea before saying “Whatever,” and becoming the DH.
Then, the Red Sox first baseman got injured and had season ending surgery. At that point, the Red Sox turned to Devers and said, “You’ll be playing first base now,” and Devers said something to the effect of “The hell I will.”
And what happened after that? Bregman got injured. And the Red Sox sheepishly turned to Devers and asked if he would play third base in Bregman’s absence. And he said something to the effect of, “The hell I will.”
So that is where the Red Sox were. And that, apparently, is when Giants President of Baseball Ops Buster Posey first called and asked about the possibility of the Giants trading for Devers. And it all came together on Sunday.
Devers is a left-handed power hitter who has crossed the 30-homer plateau in three of his nine big league seasons. The Giants, as everybody is fond of noting, have not had any player surpass the 30-homer plateau in a season since left-handed power hitter Barry Bonds in 2004. So yeah, this is their latest attempt to break that streak.
I think what made everybody finally say yes was the Giants agreeing to take on the entirety of the rest of the contract, which is about $250 million for the next seven years and change. This at once becomes the richest contract in Giants history, even though they didn’t actually sign Devers to it.
There’s no question Giants’ ownership balked at taking on the entire $250 million. But Posey, or Giants GM Zach Minasian, or somebody who’s able to talk sense, went to whoever ultimately okayed the money and said:
“Look, we offered Judge somewhere north of $600 million and he said no. We offered Ohtani about $750 million, and he said no. We offered Harper $300 million, and he said no. We offered to trade for Stanton and sign him for $300 million, and he said no. We agreed to sign Carlos Correa for $350 million, and we all remember how that turned out. We can’t get free-agent power hitters to come here. If Rafael Devers was a free agent and we could get him for 7 years and $250 million, you’d say yes, right? So, think of it that way.”
I don’t know if that was the exact wording… but it’s probably pretty close. And Giants ownership said yes.
Now, because this wasn’t free agency, the Giants had to give something up besides $250 million. And the four players they gave back to the Red Sox were pitchers Jordan Hicks and Kyle Harrison and two minor leaguers.
It is probably not super-relevant, but it is at least worth noting that everybody the Giants gave away in this deal was signed or drafted by former President of Baseball Ops Farhan Zaidi.
Hicks, as it happens, was in the second year of a 4-year $44 million contract he signed before last season. That $44 million was the most Zaidi ever gave to a major league free agent during his tenure with the Giants, from my probably incomplete research. He did give more per year to free-agent busts Mitch Haniger and Jorge Soler, but the total for both those contracts was under $44 million (they were both 3 years for approximately $42 million).
And Farhan did sign center fielder Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year $113 million contract, but he was coming from the Korean Baseball League. And Zaidi did extend ace Logan Webb with a 5-year $90 million deal.
But Hicks was the highest total for an MLB free agent, and it most certainly didn’t pan out. They promised Hicks he could be a starter instead of a reliever, and both seasons Hicks ran out of gas and got moved to the bullpen. Last year he at least made it to July, this season he didn’t get to June. So, the Giants move off that deal and Hicks gets a fresh start in Boston as well.
As for Kyle Harrison, the young pitcher, he has the most upside in the deal and is a Bay Area local, having grown up in Danville and went to high school at the powerhouse known as De La Salle. He grew up a Giants fan and was a great local-kid-stars-for-hometown-team story, but from the Red Sox viewpoint he was the key piece they got back in this deal.
That’s because the current Red Sox pitching coach is former Giants pitching coach Andrew Bailey, who therefore has worked extensively with Harrison before. So, at some point Bailey was asked which young Giants pitcher he would want, and Harry was his choice.
(How did Zaidi find Harrison, you might ask? Well, he took him in the 2020 draft, when everybody was staying at home. And Harrison was the best nearby prospect to Zaidi and the Giants. At the time, it was the simplest choice to make.)
With Devers, the Giants have to make some decisions. Their current DHs are Jerar Encarnacion (who cannot be sent back to the minors outright), the newly signed Dom Smith and fan-favorite Wilmer Flores. All these guys can also sort of play first base. They probably won’t make the big decision on any of these guys soon because by getting rid of Hicks and Harrison, they have opened up a roster spot. But the decision is looming. You would hope they keep Flores. But these guys are all different sides of the same coin, and one of them will have to go.
So, what happens now with Devers? Well, third baseman Matt Chapman is out probably until close to the All-Star break in mid-July, so Devers will probably play some third base. He’ll obviously DH a lot. And he’ll probably also start practicing at first base. Yep, all three things the Red Sox wanted him to do at some point this season that he declined to do. Because the Giants will have told him all these plans in advance.
And who do the Giants host this weekend? Why, the Boston Red Sox, because this is just how baseball works. It would be really funny if Devers started at third base, DH, and first base for all three games. And Buster Posey and the Giants will be laughing every time Devers splashes down in McCovey Cove…
Missing in the discussion of this trade? Bryce Eldredge.
With the potential logjam at 1B, Eldredge is no longer necessarily on the fast track to MLB at that position. Maybe, a switch to RF?
And, while Harrison may be the key now (memories of Zack Wheeler float), Tibbs might be a key later as a potential power replacement for Devers for the Red Sox. Remember Brian Reynolds?
Bold move by Buster.
"Because the Giants will have told him all these plans in advance." Maybe. We'll see. Anyway. I like the trade. I also like Flores back at first base and not platooned any more than he is as DH. They have time, so let's see if Dominic Smith keeps hitting. He gets plaudits from me for saying something about the immigration raids in L.A while the Los Angeles Cowards, err, Dodgers, say nothing even as they prep to hand out Fernando bobbleheads. Another reason to totally despise the Dodgers. Encarnacion? Looking like a Triple A lifer.