I had a plan, and it was great.
The first and second rounds of the Men’s NCAA Tournament were going to be in Sacramento. It’s 90 minutes from where I live. Work was more than okay with me missing those days. I had, somehow, lucked out into booking a room at the hotel literally across the street from Sacramento’s great new arena, the Golden 1 Center. People were going to meet me there. One group for Friday’s games, a different group on Sunday. And because it’s not far from Reno, I was going to make a full week of it. Drive up Monday to Reno, spend a couple days there with different friends who are regular Reno types, bet the tournament and play some craps and roulette and blackjack. Of course wager on those First Four games and Kansas to win the whole thing. Then come back to Sacramento on Thursday and settle in. Spend a good amount of time in Old Town and the good bars/restaurants in the area right by the arena. Maybe get some grade school nostalgia and go to Sutter’s Fort on Saturday?
The plan was immaculate, and nearly foolproof.
Problem was, it was for the 2020 tournament.
As tournament time got closer, travelling began to seem like a bad idea with this weird virus starting to circle around the world. In early March I backed out of the Reno portion of the trip, which that group of friends did not understand (eventually they did). I still had not bought tickets for the tournament, figuring that what I like to call the “get-in price” would never be too ridiculous. Those prices began to plummet. Then it just seemed like a dumb idea to go hang out with 15,000 strangers, so I sent an email to the hotel cancelling my reservation and got a very mean personal email back from the manager telling me that I was going to be charged full price anyway. Then the NBA shut down on March 11th and everything really changed, as you are no doubt aware. I phoned the hotel 800-number the next morning and got a crying girl who had no doubt been been berated all shift long for something that wasn’t her fault. I was nice to her and got a full refund, credited within a day at most. The NCAA Tournament was cancelled, among many other things.
And now, in 2023, the Men’s NCAA Tournament is back in Sacramento for the first and second rounds.
A few situational things have changed, but others have not. First, I’m still planning on going to the tournament and work is okay with it. Second, I’m not booking the hotel next to the arena this time. I feel pretty okay with staying elsewhere and travelling downtown. I might have a look there and see if prices are low enough that it might be worth the splurge, but I’m also going to find out that manager is still there, because that’s a “hell naw” if so.
Third, instead of Friday/Sunday the tournament days are Thursday/Saturday, which changes a little with the potential arrive/leave days, depending on where I want to watch the other games. When I’m travelling to the tournament I actually prefer the second-day schedule because it allows for a good build-up amongst the crowds and surrounding areas, because you see “your city” on all the “upcoming schedule” promos. Fourth, Reno is still kind of an option but not as much because of the Thursday/Saturday schedule. With four games I assume Sacramento will be in the late window, but that still means at minimum a 1pm local time tip-off for game one. Spend a (yet another) late night in Reno and have to drive through the mountains in mid-March weather in time to get parked and to the arena? Not my ideal scenario.
Anyway, I tell you all that to get to this, the crux of the matter: when I went to the tournament in San Jose in 2010, I wrote up on one of my many previous websites a weekly-or-so Bracketology preview of the teams that were going there. I looked at several different Bracketology websites, some legit and some just done by “some dudes” to see who was predicted to go to San Jose, and by Selection Sunday I knew pretty much who was going to be there, and the actual teams were pretty close.
So, I plan on doing that again this year, and this is part one of that. I’m calling it “Sacramentology” because we’re focusing on 8 teams, not all 68, in one specific location. It rolls off the tongue pretty well, unlike “Des Moinesology” but not as funny as “Albanyology” (both also 1st/2nd round sites this year, along with “Orlandology,” “Greensborology,” “Colombusology,” “Birminghamology,” and a place that will show up plenty, “Denverology,” in addition to the First Four Site, “Daytonology”).
There is one thing I don’t need a Bracketology website to tell me: UCLA will be in Sacramento in March. Bruin fans, make your plans now with confidence. It is the closest site to Westwood and barring an absolutely brutal couple of months (highly unlikely with Mick Cronin in charge) the Bruins will stay in-state.
I was going to put in Gonzaga as the other absolute, but so many Bracketologists have the Zags being shipped to Denver with Arizona as the other Sacramento-bound top team I can’t say that. The thing is, Tucson is closer to Denver than it is to Sacramento so that doesn’t make sense (one particular Bracketologist you’ve heard of is good at seeding while horrible at predicting locations). I will only say I personally believe that Gonzaga is a Sacramento lock, and time will tell.
So let’s begin. Because everything now is rated, the site Bracketmatrix.com has compiled dozens of Bracketology sites and rates them all, so I’ve been going through them to find projections. Unfortunately, several sites project only seeds and not locations (including the official NCAA guy, Andy Katz). They do have a list of Bracketologists who have won their matrix, so when possible I have used their past champions, in addition to a few of the more well-known Bracketologists. (Obviously if you have a bracketologist you like who is not here, let me know and I’ll add them. It’s not like this scientific in any way.)
Projections as of January 15th.
West: (2) UCLA vs. (15) Eastern Washington and (7) Missouri vs. (10) Northwestern
Midwest: (2) Arizona vs. (15) Stetson and (7) Auburn vs. (10) Indiana
Lo and behold, here is the Bracketologist that is really good at seeding but bad at predicting locations. Every year Lunardi publishes that he got at least 90% or whatever of the seeds right. What he doesn’t publish is his percentage of locations and matchups, and there’s a reason for that. In my San Jose write-ups he was constantly off with who was coming, where most of the other predictors were pretty much in agreement with the teams if not the exact seeding, which Joe did have (but again, in the wrong location). In his very final prediction, and this I remember vividly, he almost completely changed out the teams going to San Jose and was completely wrong there… but he got his 90% of the seed lines right and crowed about that. And he’s never fixed that part of the predictions. His location picks remain the worst part, and you’ll start to see that for yourself as we move along here. I will say I like his team selection so far. Northwestern has only made the NCAA’s once, ever, I hate Mizzou (Kansas alum) and Indiana-Auburn would be fun. And he has Gonzaga as a 3-seed in Denver.
West: (4) UCLA vs. (13) UC-Irvine and (5) TCU vs. (12) Utah Valley
Midwest: (3) Gonzaga vs. (14) Eastern Washington and (6) Arizona State vs (11) Play-In
Already major discrepancies between the two most looked-at Bracketologists, if only because ESPN is ESPN and CBS actually broadcasts the games. First, obviously, the Gonzaga/Arizona fight is on (Palm has ‘Zona as a 2-seed, in Denver). And UCLA as a 4? That’s lower than everybody else (he must be a USC Grad). Looks like Eastern Washington might be worth keeping an eye on, though.
Midwest: (2) UCLA vs. (15) Furman and (7) Wisconsin vs. (10) Florida-Atlantic
West: (2) Arizona vs. (15) UMass-Lowell and (7) Saint Mary’s vs. (10) Iowa
He has Gonzaga in Denver as a three (yes, this is going to be a continuing theme). The biggest add here is the best college basketball team in the Bay Area, the Saint Mary’s Gaels. I would not be surprised at all if the Gaels end up as the 7-seed here for real or even get fudged up or down a spot or two to get them to stay in Sacramento. They are in the WCC along with Gonzaga so they would probably put them on the opposite side when the Zags end up here too. A little surprised nobody else has figured this out yet.
Now, the best Bracketologists from Bracketmatrix.com…
The Washington Post/D1scourse (Patrick Stevens) 2021 winner
Midwest: (2) UCLA vs. (15) SIU-Edwardsville and (7) Indiana vs. (10) College of Charleston
West: (3) Gonzaga vs. (14) Longwood and (6) San Diego State vs. (11) West Virginia
Arizona in Denver as a 2, check. A second California school, check. Seems solid.
Bracketville (BracketguyDave) 2015 and 2011 winner
Midwest: (2) UCLA vs. (15) Norfolk State and (7) Wisconsin vs. (10) College of Charleston
West: (2) Arizona vs. (15) Samford and (7) Illinois vs. (10) Saint Mary’s
Never heard of BracketguyDave before this, but he’s won Bracketmatrix twice so we’ll see how good he is at site projections. Since he’s been doing this since 2009 I imagine he’s not terrible. I love that he’s still on a wordpress site, so old school. Doesn’t look like he’s changed his layout since 2009 either. I bet he still has a flip phone, this is fantastic. He has Gonzaga as a Denver 3-seed. Another CofC and Saint Mary’s vote.
DelphiBracketology (group effort) 2016 Winner
Midwest: (2) UCLA vs. (15) Eastern Washington and (7) NC State vs. (10) Illinois
West: (2) Arizona vs. (15) UW-Milwaukee and (7) Auburn vs. (10) Maryland.
Also never heard of them, but they are an Indiana High school student club! So total turnover from those 2016 students but still doing projections. I love this. I would have them on this list regardless. (Population of Delphi- yes, it’s named after the ancient Greek oracle city- and considered a suburb of Lafayette: about 3-thousand. City motto: “Home of the Wabash and Erie Canal.” Hell yes.) Go kids! And solid picks, too! Also has Gonzaga as a Denver 3-seed.
(Delphi has also made national news recently for something not so great, something I was completely unaware of before picking the Bracketology Club for this. I choose to believe in bringing some positive publicity, however minor, to the people of Delphi. You can use Google so I’m not linking to anything non-bracket related. We’re keeping the sunny-side up here.)
Bauertology (DJ Bauer) 3rd-ranked over last 5 years
West: (2) UCLA vs. (15) Eastern Washington and (7) North Carolina vs. (10) West Virginia
Midwest: (2) Arizona vs. (15) Stetson and (7) Michigan State vs. (10) Creighton
Clearly just a dude who likes college hoops and rankings and has been very good the three years he has been associated with Bracketmatrix. His choices seem a little too midwesterny and I know Stetson Bennett just won two national titles as Georgia’s quarterback, but to have him play Arizona by himself seems a bit much. Yep, Gonzaga/3/Denver.
That’s seven Bracketologists. That seems like enough. UCLA is the one common team throughout, as expected. And consider the bracketologists I chose- paid pros, a high school club, a one-man show and a dude who obviously still refuses to text people. It seems pretty eclectic, which is great. I’m a little surprised that Arizona is picked as many times as they are (5 out of the 7). I said at the top I think Gonzaga is a lock and I’m not changing that. Eastern Washington (4/7) does seem logical as a lower pick from the region that I hadn’t thought of before. And two votes for Stetson Bennett.
To be continued until the Madness hits in Sacramento. It’s still a great plan, three years later…